Did the coronavirus cost Trump reelection?

The coronavirus pandemic changed nearly everything about the 2020 election. Fears about the safety of in-person voting led to unprecedented use of mail-in ballots. Candidates were forced to suspend on-the-ground campaigning for months. Instead of the result being announced on election night, the race wasn’t called in Joe Biden’s favor for several days.

Heading into Election Day, it looked like the pandemic might have also altered the outcome of the presidential race. “Before the plague came in, I had it made,” President Trump told a crowd of supporters in...