Is the 2012 election tilting toward Democrats?

Either were at a turning point in the 2012 election, or a lot of pollsters are getting it wrong.
The question for the past week-plus has been whether President Obamas convention bounce and a series of stumbles for Mitt Romney have recast the 2012 race.
Some national polls say yes, and a few say no. But more and more, the data at the state level point to some real movement in Democrats favor. At least for now.