'The weirdest election I've ever been a part of': How the GOP almost blew the House

Seven weeks before an Election Day that many expected to be a GOP blowout, House Republicans got unsettling news: Their own internal statistical modeling was warning for the first time that they might suffer a shocking loss.

The numbers fed a nagging fear that had started to creep over top party officials, according to two people who described the data: Had Republicans peaked too soon?

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy predicted in November 2021 that his party could pick up as many as 60 seats the following year. But control over the...