We rated every race in play in 2022. This is who we think will win.

Hi there. I'm  Steve Shepard,  and with the help of my smart colleagues at POLITICO,  I predict elections. 

Much is riding on the 2022 midterm elections: the fate of President Joe Biden’s agenda, leadership in state capitals across the country and a potential 2024 comeback by former President Donald Trump. Democrats’ extremely narrow majorities in Congress are highly vulnerable, and the traditional midterm penalty suffered by the party in power has Republicans well positioned to wrest back control of the House, and quite possibly the Senate, in the fall.

In the House, Democrats’ five-seat majority...