Which Party Will Control the Senate After the 2022 Elections?
Will Democrats maintain Senate control in the 2022 midterm elections? Or will Republicans win enough seats to establish a majority?
Pollsters across the spectrum expect a close fight for the Senate. RealClearPolitics (Center bias) predicts each party to hold at least 46 seats after the midterms, with eight races as toss-ups. Fox News's (Right bias) Power Rankings expect Republicans to hold at least 49 seats to Democrats' 46. Others suggest outright that Democrats will keep their current majority. In election simulators from FiveThirtyEight (Center bias) and The Economist (Lean Left bias), Democrats emerged from over 70% of simulations with Senate control.
Others are less confident. New York Times (Lean Left bias) chief political analyst Nate Cohn wrote Monday of a "warning sign": the fact that, according to the Times's polling models, "Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016."
Coverage across the spectrum has been pessimistic recently about Republicans' Senate chances, but Cohn's prediction signaled a shift. Right-rated sources highlighted Cohn's warning prominently, and headlines from both Washington Examiner (Lean Right bias) and The Independent (Lean Left bias) questioned whether a "blue mirage" is exaggerating Democrats' chances. Some voices from left-rated outlets, such as MSNBC (Left bias), agreed with that view, while others focused more on polls that predict Democrats will maintain their Senate majority.
Featured Coverage of this Story
From the RightControl of the Senate Is Still a Jump Ball
This sentence from Nate Cohn in the New York Times is likely to thrill a lot of Republicans who hunger for good news about the upcoming midterms: “That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.”
What was most memorable about the 2020 Senate polling were the spectacular misses — Sara Gideon’s consistent polling lead over incumbent Republican Susan Collins in Maine, and the Quinnipiac polls that kept showing South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham tied...
From the CenterThese 3 races could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate in 2023
Thirty five Senate seats are up for reelection in November, but only eight are considered toss-ups, according to RealClearPolitics. Of those, there are three that are most likely to determine which party controls the Senate, according to research firm Beacon Policy Advisors.
In a report released Friday, Beacon predicted “the likely tipping point race to be Georgia, a purple state that is still to the right of the nation by about three points.”
The incumbent senator, Democrat Raphael Warnock, defeated Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler in a special runoff election last year...
From the LeftForecasters now predict Democrats have the edge in the fight for Senate control
Two prominent election forecasting models now give Democrats a 70% or better chance of retaining their Senate majority in November, a major shift that suggests the fight for control may no longer be the toss-up that it has long been considered.
The FiveThirtyEight election model finds that in 70 out of 100 election simulations, Democrats emerge from 2022 in the majority. The Economist's model is even more optimistic for the party, finding that in 78 out of 100 simulations, Democrats retain their majority in November.
Both models take into account polling, demographic, fundraising and...
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