Which Party Will Control the Senate After the 2022 Elections?

Will Democrats maintain Senate control in the 2022 midterm elections? Or will Republicans win enough seats to establish a majority?

Pollsters across the spectrum expect a close fight for the Senate. RealClearPolitics (Center bias) predicts each party to hold at least 46 seats after the midterms, with eight races as toss-ups. Fox News's (Right bias) Power Rankings expect Republicans to hold at least 49 seats to Democrats' 46. Others suggest outright that Democrats will keep their current majority. In election simulators from FiveThirtyEight (Center bias) and The Economist (Lean Left bias), Democrats emerged from over 70% of simulations with Senate control.

Others are less confident. New York Times (Lean Left bias) chief political analyst Nate Cohn wrote Monday of a "warning sign": the fact that, according to the Times's polling models, "Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016."

Coverage across the spectrum has been pessimistic recently about Republicans' Senate chances, but Cohn's prediction signaled a shift. Right-rated sources highlighted Cohn's warning prominently, and headlines from both Washington Examiner (Lean Right bias) and The Independent (Lean Left bias) questioned whether a "blue mirage" is exaggerating Democrats' chances. Some voices from left-rated outlets, such as MSNBC (Left bias), agreed with that view, while others focused more on polls that predict Democrats will maintain their Senate majority.