Bond-market recession gauge plunges to triple digits below zero and reaches fresh four-decade milestone

One of the bond market’s most reliable gauges of impending U.S. recessions plunged further below zero into triple-digit negative territory on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed to the need for higher interest rates and a possible reacceleration in the pace of hikes.

The widely followed spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields finished the New York session at minus 103.7 basis points — a level not seen since Sept. 22, 1981, when it reached minus 121.4 basis points and the fed funds rate was 19% under...