How screwed are Democrats in the Senate?

Democrats are terrified of what the future holds for them in the United States Senate.

The party currently controls half the seats in the chamber, giving them, with Vice President Harris’s tie-breaking vote, the narrowest possible majority. But some in the party — like pollster David Shor, recently profiled by Ezra Klein in the New York Times — believe demographic trends put Democrats at grave risk of falling into a deep hole over the next two election cycles.

That risk exists even if Democrats continue to win more votes nationwide. “If 2024...