Headline RoundupFebruary 10th, 2023

Russia Prepares for New Offensive as War Nears One-Year Mark

Summary from the AllSides News Team

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is nearing the one-year mark. As the winter thaws, reports across the spectrum are suggesting that both sides of the conflict are preparing for the war to enter a new stage in the coming weeks.

Movements: A New York Times piece analyzed Russian and Ukrainian troops positions and intelligence to assess the next stage of the war. According to the piece, Russian President Vladimir Putin “has given an order to take all of the Donbas region by March.” Ukraine hopes recently approved military aid will arrive in time to defend Russia’s advance, and aid in a potential push into the Russian-occupied southern regions of the country.

Mud Season: A key factor that could hinder both sides’ efforts is Ukraine’s infamous mud season, which has historically ground military advances to a halt, from Napoleon in 1812 to the Nazis in 1941. A piece in CNBC stated that in the coming weeks, “forecasts suggest soil temperature increases and snow melt are likely to deteriorate cross-country mobility across the Donbas.”

Timeframe: Despite a large-scale mobilization in the Fall to reinforce the invasion, the Russian military still might not have the power to achieve Putin’s goals. A New York Post article stated Russia is in a “race against time” and quoted a recent update from the Institute for the Study of War, which stated that Russia “may be rushing to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer Donetsk Oblast in an unrealistic timeframe and likely without sufficient combat power.”

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