Russia Prepares for New Offensive as War Nears One-Year Mark
Summary from the AllSides News Team
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is nearing the one-year mark. As the winter thaws, reports across the spectrum are suggesting that both sides of the conflict are preparing for the war to enter a new stage in the coming weeks.
Movements: A New York Times piece analyzed Russian and Ukrainian troops positions and intelligence to assess the next stage of the war. According to the piece, Russian President Vladimir Putin “has given an order to take all of the Donbas region by March.” Ukraine hopes recently approved military aid will arrive in time to defend Russia’s advance, and aid in a potential push into the Russian-occupied southern regions of the country.
Mud Season: A key factor that could hinder both sides’ efforts is Ukraine’s infamous mud season, which has historically ground military advances to a halt, from Napoleon in 1812 to the Nazis in 1941. A piece in CNBC stated that in the coming weeks, “forecasts suggest soil temperature increases and snow melt are likely to deteriorate cross-country mobility across the Donbas.”
Timeframe: Despite a large-scale mobilization in the Fall to reinforce the invasion, the Russian military still might not have the power to achieve Putin’s goals. A New York Post article stated Russia is in a “race against time” and quoted a recent update from the Institute for the Study of War, which stated that Russia “may be rushing to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer Donetsk Oblast in an unrealistic timeframe and likely without sufficient combat power.”
Featured Coverage of this Story
From the Left
The War’s Violent Next StageFor much of the winter, the war in Ukraine settled into a slow-moving but exceedingly violent fight along a jagged 600-mile-long frontline in the southeast. Now, both Ukraine and Russia are poised to go on the offensive.
Russia, wary of the growing Ukrainian arsenal of Western-supplied weapons, is moving first.
Using tens of thousands of new conscripts in the hope of overwhelming Ukraine, its forces are attacking heavily fortified positions across bomb-scarred fields and through scorched forests in the East. They are looking for vulnerabilities, hoping to exploit gaps, and...
From the Center
Russia is expected to launch a new Ukraine offensive, but it faces a familiar obstacle: MudUkraine and many Western analysts believe Russia is on the precipice of launching a new, large-scale offensive but it’s likely to encounter a familiar obstacle: mud.
Frozen ground conditions in Ukraine are expected to give way to a thaw in the coming weeks, turning the war-torn nation’s fields and rural roads into a quagmire for troops and tanks.
Ukraine’s muddy season is so infamous that it has a name, “rasputitsa” — referring to the season that comes in late fall and early spring — and it has surprised various armies...
From the Right
Russian forces intensify attacks in Luhansk ahead of anticipated offensiveRussian forces stepped up shelling and attacks in eastern Ukraine Wednesday before an anticipated new offensive, but Ukrainian officials said Kyiv’s troops were still holding firm.
Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai said enemy soldiers were trying to capture the city of Kreminna and the nearby village of Bilohorivka.
“We are repulsing all their attempts to break through,” Haidai said in televised remarks. “The enemy is having no success.”
The Russian-installed leader of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic, Leonid Pasechnik, described the situation around Kreminna as “very difficult” because Ukraine was bringing...
AllSides Picks
May 7th, 2024