Will There Be a Recession in 2023?

Since mid-2022, economists and business leaders have warned of a possible recession in 2023. Now, those predictions sometimes disagree, with some warning of economic danger and others predicting a milder economic outlook. 

What They’re Saying: JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC (Center bias) on Tuesday that inflation could dry up Americans’ excess savings from the pandemic and “cause this mild to severe recession that people are worried about.” However, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN Business (Lean Left bias) that the country would avoid a recession, saying, “It’s going to be a struggle. It’s going to feel uncomfortable. But I think we are going to thread the needle.” Meanwhile, a survey published Monday found that 52% of economists believed a recession would begin in early 2023. 

For Context: While the U.S. economy narrowly met the common definition of a recession in early 2022 — two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction — many fear a deeper downturn. This is partly because of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases, which aim to fight inflation by raising borrowing costs and slowing the economy down. Businesses, particularly in the tech industry, announced layoffs throughout the second half of 2022 to prepare for a reduction in demand.

How the Media Covered It: Coverage and perspectives were common across the spectrum, particularly in business outlets. Generally, left-rated outlets were more likely to feature positive economic predictions, and right-rated outlets were more likely to feature negative ones.