Trump Expands Lead in Iowa Caucus

According to a new poll by the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom, former President Donald Trump is the first choice of 51% of likely Republican caucus goers, up from 43% in October. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received 19% first-choice support, and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley received 16%.

Key Details: Trump's lead is fueled by first-time likely caucus goers and evangelicals, and he leads his Republican opponents in every demographic group. Three-quarters of likely Republican voters in Iowa also feel Trump can defeat President Joe Biden next year, despite his ongoing legal battles.

Key Quote: “The field may have shrunk, but it may have made Donald Trump even stronger than he was,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “I would call his lead commanding at this point. There's not much benefit of fewer candidates for either Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.” 

For Context: The Iowa caucus will be held on January 15th, and Trump's lead is the biggest recorded this close to a competitive Republican caucus in the Iowa Poll's history. The Des Moines Register (Center Bias) began conducting the poll in 1943.

How the Media Covered it: Sources on the left noted that many caucus goers remain open to considering DeSantis or Haley and that the Iowa caucuses can be unpredictable, including in 2012, when Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum received a narrow upset win. Sources on the right noted that the polls found Trump's supporters to be more enthusiastic and committed than his opponents' supporters.