Trade uncertainty is at its highest point on record
UNCERTAINTY IS a sort of poison for the global economy. Without knowing what lies ahead, firms delay making potentially profitable investments and hiring new workers. As President Donald Trump’s trade wars have escalated, economists have attempted to estimate how much uncertainty has risen—and to what extent it may be dragging down economic growth.
The latest such measure comes from Hites Ahir and Davide Furceri of the International Monetary Fund and Nick Bloom of Stanford University. To get a consistent measure of uncertainty over time, they scour country reports from the...