How Will Trump’s Guilty Verdict Impact the 2024 Election?

Will former President Donald Trump's conviction on charges of falsifying business records impact his 2024 election chances?

The Details: According to polling by Citizen Data (Lean Left bias), “While a majority of voters—59%—say the trial hasn’t affected their support for Trump, a significant minority (41%) report that it has. As shown below, among those individuals, 67% say that their support for Trump slightly or heavily decreased.” Conversely, polling from Marist (Center) said just 17% of voters said "they would be less likely to vote for him if he is convicted."

For Context: A Manhattan jury convicted Trump on 34 counts related to allegations that he falsified business records to cover up a hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. Trump faces three other criminal cases: a Florida case involving alleged withholding of classified documents from the National Archives, a Washington, D.C. case alleging conspiracy to defraud Americans’ voting rights following the 2020 election, and a Georgia case alleging a racketeering scheme to overturn 2020 election results by appointing fake electors. Trump has pleaded not guilty in all cases. 

The Latest: In remarks Friday morning, Trump continued stating that the trial was “rigged.”

How the Media Covered It: Coverage across the spectrum, particularly on the right, highlighted Trump’s “record” fundraising off of the verdict, which crashed Trump’s donation website on Thursday. Broader analyses of polling data appeared more common in left and center-rated outlets, often describing mixed or uncertain conclusions.