When Trump Calls for a Referendum—On Himself

Sign up for Dan’s new weekly newsletter and podcast, "Sanity Check," at danschnur.substack.com. Politics… but calmer. 

Dennis Rodman, the controversial former basketball star, episodic reveler, and occasional thwarted diplomat, was once asked if his off-the-court escapades might cause some of his fans to think less of him. Rodman’s response: “The only bad press is an obituary.”

Donald Trump, in much less stirring prose, has long held the same belief, writing in his The Art of The Deal back in the 1980’s that: "Good publicity is preferable to bad, but from a bottom-line perspective, bad publicity is sometimes better than no publicity at all."

Trump has turned that calculation into a full-fledged political strategy over the years, effectively using this “flood the zone” approach to effectively drown out his competitors in his victorious 2016 and 2024 campaigns and his near miss in 2020. (At one point during their debate that year, his frustrated opponent Joe Biden became so exasperated at Trump’s frequent interruptions that he finally sighed, “Will you shut up, man?”)

As the 2026 midterm campaign heads into its home stretch, Trump is clearly leaning heavily on that same familiar philosophy. History demonstrates that a president’s party almost always loses seats in the midterm election, mainly because the voters have already begun to tire of the leader they elected just two years ago. Trump’s advisors, recognizing his record-low approval ratings, reportedly proposed a more typical plan for the fall campaign, with a great deal of fundraising but an extremely low public profile.

Trump would have none of it. He correctly argued that the Democrats would make him their primary target but then took the unorthodox tack that he would therefore need to reestablish his own credentials to protect the GOP brand and its candidates. Whether this was a strategy born in calculated thinking or untrammeled ego is a conclusion that most of us will draw based on our existing view of the president. But either way, when Trump’s super PAC rolled out their first national advertising last week, it extensively featured Trump himself with no mention of any other candidates or even the upcoming elections.

The president did authorize a multi-million dollar PAC contribution to endangered Texas Republican candidate Ken Paxton, whose fundraising and poll numbers are lagging far behind his Democratic opponent. GOP candidates and their consultants have been in a state of near-panic for most of the summer, as Trump has spent only a tiny percentage of his massive war chest amid rumors that he is saving the money for his presidential library and other legacy projects. So the first sizable contribution to Paxton did bring some exhaled relief in the key battleground races.

But all signs continue to point to Trump remaining front-and-center through the fall. The national Republican convention that he has orchestrated for this week will feature him on both nights, guaranteeing that he will overshadow candidates who might otherwise have benefited from the public exposure. He vowed last week to travel the country during the last month before the election, forcing those same frontline candidates to explain to wary voters and skeptical media where they either agreed or disagreed with his various public pronouncements. While the news coverage of his visits to these competitive districts and states will attract an immense amount of attention, it’s arguable whether the candidates themselves would prefer to trade the increased scrutiny for the ability to talk about the issues on which they and their voters are in synch.

The most likely scenario for the next several weeks is an election season that will be framed almost entirely as a referendum on Trump himself. Republican candidates across the country are quietly removing the president from their websites and keeping their fingers crossed that the White House chooses to deploy him elsewhere. (Large numbers of them are skipping this week’s convention altogether.) They believe that running on the Trump record of tax cuts, a soaring stock market, and a closed border while avoiding visible contact with the man himself is the balancing act that can bring them to victory.

Trump obviously disagrees, and the likelihood of him voluntarily keeping a low profile during what might be his last chance to hit the trail as an active campaigner is infinitesimal. Win or lose, this election will be all about Trump. Which is just the way he—and most Democrats—want it.

And as always, you can read more of Dan’s writing at www.danschnurpolitics.com.