How Has the Media Covered Presidential Polling?

With four weeks until the presidential election, polls are abundant. While polling averages and prediction models have shown a steady, close race, media across the spectrum often fixates on dramatic swings or gripes about polling and prediction methodologies.

Models Show a Tossup: Since Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate, popular polling aggregators and election models have consistently projected a very close race. Neither the model by 538 (Center bias) nor the Silver Bulletin model by former 538 chief Nate Silver (not rated) has given either candidate odds over 65%. The Economist (Lean Left) model says simply that each candidate "has about a 1 in 2 chance," and Cook Report (Center) gives a "tossup" rating to states representing 93 electoral college votes. The AllSides model currently gives Harris a 59% chance.

Some Sensationalize: Many news articles cherry-picked interesting results from individual polls, such as a Harris 16-point lead among independents in one poll covered by Newsweek (Center). Similarly, USA Today (Lean Left) covered a poll showing Harris "losing ground with young Latino men" in Nevada and Arizona, which Fox News (Right) also highlighted. Articles even sensationalized the closeness of the race, with NBC (Lean Left) calling the race "on a knife's edge" and USA Today calling it "razor thin."

Others Criticize: Politico (Lean Left) interviewed a Republican pollster who accused the "whole [polling] industry" of "trying to influence the aggregators" by releasing "biased polls." New York Times (Lean Left) poll analyst Nate Cohn (not rated) argued against a common polling adjustment that weighs responses by 2020 voting patterns.