How Will Young Voters Vote in 2024?

Presidential election polls show Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump comfortably among young voters overall, but a strong shift toward Trump among young men and smaller shifts among minority voters. Most media across the spectrum focused only on angles that were negative for Harris.

CNBC Poll: In a poll of Americans aged 18-34 by CNBC (Center bias), given only two options, 60% of respondents backed Harris and 40% Trump. Miami Herald (Lean Left) said the CBS poll showed "Harris has made significant inroads with young voters" since CBS previously conducted it in July — but the previous poll's choices included third-party candidates, which may explain some of the apparent movement toward Harris.

Harvard Poll: A poll by Harvard University estimated likely voters aged 18-29 break 61% for Harris and 30% for Trump, with third-party candidates included. The same poll showed Harris winning 53% of male respondents and Trump 36%. Unusual Whales (Center) focused on the 26% of male respondents aged 18-24 who identified as conservative, skipping most other details.

NYT/Siena Poll: Nate Cohn, polling guru of the New York Times (Lean Left), wrote that the outlet's polls show Harris "faring no better than Mr. Biden did among young men" aged 18-29, "even as she’s made significant gains among young women." He called it a "surprising trend" and mused about the Trumpian atmosphere of "major online young male subcultures." Breitbart (Right) combined the Times poll with anecdotes to argue that Harris was in danger of losing Arizona and Michigan.