How Some Key Minority Voter Blocs Affected the 2024 Election

Minority voter blocs that have traditionally broken for Democrats or abstained from voting in the past posted above average turnout for Donald Trump in swing states, prompting media dialogue.

Michigan Arabs: Hafiz Rashid of The New Republic (Left bias) analyzed how Dearborn, Michigan, the largest Arab American city in the country, voted. As of 7 am EST on November 6, Dearborn voted roughly 42% for Trump, and 36% for his challenger, Vice President Kamala Harris. Rashid cited the Israel-Hamas war as a driving factor of the Arabs’ divorce from the Democratic Party, and highlighted that Green candidate Jill Stein commanded a sizable share of the vote.

Pennsylvania Latinos: An analysis from Kyle Sammin for UnHerd (Center bias) highlighted Trump’s particularly strong showing with Hispanic voters in Pennsylvania, concluding that they “won” the state for him. Ehsan wrote that since 2016, Trump has been “shifting the Republican Party to a multi-ethnic coalition of workers and small businesspeople,” and that Pennsylvania is evidence of that.

Pennsylvania Germans: A report from The New York Post (Lean Right bias) cited a source who said Amish registered to vote in “unprecedented numbers” due to a January federal raid on a farm in Bird-in-Hand, Pennsylvania. The source reportedly said the Amish planned to vote for Trump because they perceived him to be less interventionist, but noted that “actual numbers of Amish voters were unclear as of Tuesday night.”

Black Voters: Harris appears to have won 80% of the black vote, according to exit polls, a 10-point drop compared to President Joe Biden in 2020. Black voters in swing states were more likely to vote red in 2024 than in 2020; in Wisconsin, black voters made a 13-point shift toward Trump.