Can a Third Party Candidate Win the White House in 2024?

Could a third party candidate win the presidential election in 2024? 

From The Left: A strong sentiment from left-rated voices is that third party votes will especially hurt Democratic chances in 2024, with many citing Ralph Nader’s third party run in 2000 as the reason George W. Bush won the presidential election. A CNN Opinion (Left bias) article argued “most voters who reject extremism have tended to vote Democratic,” and that a third party candidate would splinter Democratic votes and hand the election to Donald Trump. This fear led a writer in New York Times Opinion (Left bias) to state, “when it comes time to go to the polls, the smartest thing you can do is accept the depressing compromises that can come with a two-party democracy. Then straighten your back and fight for change anyhow.”

From The Right: Peggy Noonan (Right bias) expressed slight optimism on the changes of a third party candidate, writing that if they can “avoid scandal and total incompetence” they could do it. Noonan paints a picture of a third party voter, characterizing them as “affluent people with too much time on their hands.” She argues that if they can work to overcome stereotypes and get on ballots, they have a chance in 2024. David Brooks (Lean Right bias) wrote that in other electoral matchups, he would welcome a third party candidate to pull away Democratic votes, but in 2024, he states, “With Trump on the scene, the potential rewards don’t justify the risks.”