What to make of Michigan

It's just past 4 a.m. here on the East Coast, and as I write this, Abdul El-Sayed leads Haley Stevens by only 1.4 points in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate with 95+ percent of the vote counted in Michigan. The margin is narrow, but when there aren't a lot of votes left, will be hard for Stevens to make up. El-Sayed has been declared the winner by NBC News, and is considered the almost certain victor by prediction markets, but other news outlets haven't called the race yet. I've never been much of an election night modeling guy — my whole thing is pre-election forecasts — so I'm not going to offer an opinion about whether NBC and the prediction markets got ahead of themselves. Most of you will probably read this in the morning, and the results may be clearer by then, but the points I'll make in this newsletter aren't particularly contingent on the exact final result.