This is an opinion from the Center.
Abdul El-Sayed wants to abolish the nation’s Immigration and Customs Agency. The Michigan Senate candidate supports replacing private insurance with a government-run system. He described Israel as a “rogue state” and stated that the Israeli government is “just as evil as Hamas.”
In the last hours before tomorrow’s seminal primary, El Sayed’s opponents are accusing him of sexism. This is entirely appropriate. His insults about his opponent, Representative Haley Stevens, and his dismissive comments about other prominent women such as former first lady Michelle Obama and Governor Gretchen Whitmer make questions about his treatment of women a legitimate topic to raise before voters go to the polls. But it also suggests that the centrist Stevens and her supporters understand that criticizing the ultra-progressive El-Sayed on ideological grounds is less likely to be a successful strategy for them.
El-Sayed has said in the past that he supports defunding the police, though he has since disavowed that position. He has campaigned with antisemitic podcaster Hasan Piker, who has said that “[America] deserved 9/11,” stated he would “vote for Hamas over Israel every single time,” and referred to ultra-Orthodox Jews as “inbred.” But Stevens’ campaign is not emphasizing these controversies either, because they recognize that they might not be winning arguments in a Democratic primary.
Just as Donald Trump has carried the Republican Party into previously uncharted ideological waters, progressive insurgents have been having the same type of impact on Democratic incumbents and other establishment figures in campaigns around the country over the past several months. I have written before about the Democratic Socialists of America and how the progressive movement has fueled a hard-left populist upsurge that is wreaking havoc with the traditional Democratic Party. (And it should be noted that El-Sayed does not consider himself to be a DSA member, but he has benefited greatly from the energetic backing of the organization and its members).
Up until now, the group’s victories have come in deep-blue urban areas like New York City, Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia, and heavily Democratic House and legislative districts in Colorado, Oregon, and California. But now the movement’s progress is approaching another milestone, facing critical swing-state primaries in Michigan’s Senate race tomorrow and Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor next week. If either El-Sayed or Dairyland DSAer Francesca Hong secures their party’s nomination in states that have been closely contested in recent state and national elections, it will mark a seminal step forward for the movement as it works to expand its political footprint.
El-Sayed’s race appears to be close, as Stevens has secured endorsements from Whitmer, former Senator Debbie Stabenow, and other prominent state Democrats, which has allowed her to close the gap in the polls. But even though Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers has endorsed Hong’s centrist opponent, she still maintains a large lead in that state. (Although the bumper-car nature of the primary there makes that campaign far too volatile to predict with any confidence.)
This shift from safe Democratic territory to more competitive political turf potentially marks a major step forward for the DSA and their allies. Just as it took Trump and his MAGA movement to expand the Tea Party’s reach from reliable Republican voters to a broader audience, we’ll learn in the days and weeks ahead whether this burgeoning progressive crusade can broaden its reach as well.
The party’s convention in Chicago this past weekend was marked by heated debate over whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would or should be their presidential candidate in two years. AOC herself has been increasingly noncommittal about the prospect, but El-Sayed has made it clear that he sees his victory in Michigan as an indicator that the Democrats are ready for a sharp turn to the left in 2028.
There’s obviously no way to predict the outcome of a presidential nomination contest still that far off. But a couple of dozen potential candidates are already beginning to reach out to party donors and activists, and the Democratic National Committee’s announcement of their new primary calendar last week will only accelerate their efforts. And once the midterms are over a mere 90 days from now, the 2028 campaign will intensify even more.
Again, it’s impossible to guess how the American people will choose their next president in an election that is still 27 months away. But primary voters in Michigan and Wisconsin are about to give us a great deal of clarity on where we might be headed.
Want to talk about this topic more? You can read more of Dan’s writing at www.danschnurpolitics.com.
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