5 reasons to expect a Harris win — and 4 to expect a Trump victory

The 2024 presidential race is the closest on record. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are separated by 1 percentage point or less both nationally and in the decisive battleground states. In the Electoral College, the two candidates are essentially tied, with the election turning on a deadlocked Pennsylvania, according to the New York Times’s polling average.

If one looks beyond the polling data, however, it is not difficult to tell a story about why each candidate is actually the favorite. Here are four reasons you should expect Trump to win the presidency Tuesday, and five to expect a Harris victory instead.