When Politicians Stop Being Ambitious

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The headline to this week’s column is intentionally ridiculous. Politicians never stop being ambitious, at least not until old age, poor health, or death requires it. As the late Congressman Morris Udall once said, “The only cure for presidential fever is embalming fluid.”

Joe Biden ran for president four times over more than three decades before finally achieving his goal. Ronald Reagan and Franklin Roosevelt each ran four times too, as did Ralph Nader. Donald Trump is one of nine men who ran three times (Joe Biden actually ran three-and-a-half times). It’s clear that what Udall referred to as “presidentialitis,” once contracted, is a lifelong affliction.

So what are Marco Rubio and Gavin Newsom up to? Rubio, who ran unsuccessfully in 2016 and has served in the Senate and as Secretary of State, has indicated that he would not run in the next election if Vice President J.D. Vance were a candidate. Newsom, who has not yet run but appears to have been planning his candidacy since early adolescence, told a credulous reporter last week that he would opt out of the 2028 race if Vance’s predecessor, former Vice President Kamala Harris, chose to make her own third try for the Oval Office.

While it is possible that Rubio and Newsom have somehow been inoculated from this disease, what’s far more likely is that neither of them has actually been cured of this affliction but rather have learned how to temporarily mask the symptoms.

Rubio’s case is easier to decipher. Trump selected Vance as his running mate two years ago, and while the president plainly enjoys pitting Vance and Rubio against each other, frequently asking others which of his two advisors they would prefer, Vance’s relentless pursuit of MAGA nation may have earned him Trump’s favor.

Because Rubio developed a more extensive record in public office prior to Trump’s first campaign, he is often viewed as somewhat of a Bush-era Republican. Combined with his more measured outreach to Trump’s most loyal supporters, he does not elicit the same level of enthusiasm from the party base as his potential rival. As Trump’s second term winds down, he may command less loyalty from grassroots Republicans. It’s also possible that Trump, never known for his loyalty, may develop more affection for Rubio over the next two years. 

But either way, there’s not much that Rubio can do at the moment. Overtly challenging Vance would not do him much good, and there is still plenty of time before Trump will be emotionally prepared to anoint his political heir. For Rubio, discretion and ambition might be two sides of the same coin.
 
Newsom’s situation is a much more complicated and therefore a much more interesting one. Unlike Vance and Rubio, who are said to be genuine friends, Newsom and Harris have warily circled each other ever since she was a Deputy District Attorney and he was a Parking and Traffic Commissioner back in the 1990s. While they have never run against each other, tensions have frequently been seen between them as they ascended through local, then state, and now national politics.
 
Also unlike Rubio, Newsom is dealing from a position of pronounced political strength. He has emerged as his party’s most forceful and most effective Trump critic, which has brought him to the top of many pre-primary polls. While Harris’ name recognition from her two candidacies and her four years as vice president have elevated her in early surveys too, there are a number of prominent Democrats who wonder if her time is past and that a newer and fresher face might be a better alternative for the party.
 
Given Newsom’s current advantageous position, it’s curious that he would announce his willingness to defer to his Bay Area frenemy. But he is a wealthy white man who will need the support of minority voters in the early primary states in 2028. During his visit to South Carolina, North Carolina, and Alabama last week, his focus on Black audiences and venues related to civil rights was noticeable. 
 
South Carolina was the state that saved Biden’s candidacy in 2020, and Black voters were the ones who saved him. If Newsom was seen as elbowing Harris from the race, the backlash against him from these same voters could be debilitating. Better for Newsom to make it clear he would stand aside for Harris—and then hope she decides not to run so he will not have to conjure an excuse as to why he changed his mind.
 
As always, you can read more of Dan’s writing at www.danschnurpolitics.com.