Donald Trump v Kamala Harris: who’s leading the polls?

The race for the White House is in its last weeks. Early voting has begun in several states, including key battlegrounds like Arizona and Georgia. The two major-party candidates, Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice-president, and Donald Trump, the Republican former president, are criss-crossing the country, scrambling to raise funds and motivate voters.

We track polls from across the country and synthesise them to measure the state of the race. Since she took over the Democratic nomination from Joe Biden, Ms Harris’s standing has risen steadily. She has led Mr Trump by about three points nationally since August. But the American election is not decided by the popular vote. Our prediction model runs the numbers to assess whether this lead will be enough to put Ms Harris in the White House.