Polls Say Nikki Haley Can’t Win Her Home State. Here’s How You’ll Know If They’re Wrong.

Nikki Haley was born and raised in South Carolina. She’s never lost an election there, and that includes two governor’s races. So why is there an almost universal expectation — both within the state and outside — that she will lose her home state’s presidential primary?

It’s a complicated answer, but the simplest explanation is the state’s unique political complexion. Based on their voting patterns, South Carolina has four separate regions. Haley’s support is concentrated in just one of them.