Trump’s New Hampshire Win Comes with Warning Signs

Donald Trump didn’t romp in New Hampshire, but he still won handily.

It’s unprecedented in the modern era for a Republican candidate in a contested nomination battle to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Republican primary voters not only are on the Trump train, they’ve bought first-class tickets and expect an on-time arrival.

Like Ron DeSantis before her, Nikki Haley has now finished second in her most promising state. She had the endorsement of the popular sitting governor, Chris Sununu, who campaigned tirelessly for her, while New Hampshire’s relatively moderate electorate, with a large bloc of independents routinely participating in the GOP primary, made for ideal terrain for her. She won 60 percent of independents and only 25 percent of Republicans. That was enough to get within about eleven points of Trump in New Hampshire but not enough to win there; nor, if the pattern holds, will it be enough to win anywhere else.