Haley surprises the pollsters, still loses to Trump

Just a week ago, on Jan. 16, the RealClearPolitics average of polls for the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary showed former President Donald Trump leading former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley by 13.2 points. That was a significant lead, but then it just kept growing: 15.6 points on Jan. 19, 18.2 points on Jan. 22, and 19.3 on election day.

In the face of such grim predictions, Haley and her top supporters sought to redefine downward what would constitute success in the primary. While, at one time, they had been quite brash — in December, Haley’s most important endorser, Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH), predicted she would “win in a landslide, and that’s not an exaggeration” — they were reduced to saying only that Haley expected to be “stronger” than she had been in Iowa, where she lost to Trump by 32 points.

So, what would a “strong” finish be for Haley? Some observers settled on a single digit-double digit standard. If Haley lost to Trump by less than 10 percentage points, she could claim the race was on and head to the next primary in her home state of South Carolina. But if she lost by 10 or more points, it would be hard for her to make the case for staying in the race. Maybe that formulation was a little too rigid, but it at least got across the idea that Haley needed to hold back a Trump landslide for her to keep going.