This is an opinion from the Center.
One of the most overlooked American movie classics is the 1990s hit Groundhog Day, in which Bill Murray plays a supremely confident and self-involved television weatherman who is forced to relive the same day over and over again. For those of us who are following our country’s political landscape in this critical midterm election season, it is beginning to feel as if we are watching a remake of that old film, but with Donald Trump rather than Murray cast in the lead role.
For several months, Trump has been predicting a fast and decisive conclusion to the U.S. war with Iran. But the war continues, and last week saw a resurgence in energy prices, renewed threats from both countries, and the tragic deaths of four members of our armed services. The choice that Trump has faced since he began the war in February—whether to escalate and attempt to force Iran into submission or to declare victory to end the unpopular conflict and accompanying inflation—is unchanged as well. But the president has been unable or unwilling to make a decision, and the war continues.
Iran might be the most visible example of Trump’s continuous rinse-and-repeat cycle, but there are certainly plenty of others. In the last two weeks, he has overruled his own Department of Homeland Security to reinstate the controversial policy of allowing the apprehension of migrants during traffic stops after two fatal shootings, called for the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports, and continued to hammer Senate Republicans for their unwillingness to pass his favored ballot security legislation.
Preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, protecting American manufacturing jobs, and maintaining the nation’s borders are all laudable policy goals. But Trump’s approach to these three issues is now deeply unpopular with the voting public, and there seems to be little appetite among swing voters to reconsider their thinking on any of them. Yet the president has spent much of the year continuing to prioritize these objectives, despite the pleas of his fellow Republicans who need their party leader to be emphasizing their efforts to bring down prices for energy, housing, and health care.
There are now less than 100 days remaining until the American midterm elections. The margins between the two parties in Congress are tiny, and most prognosticators believe that the Democrats will reclaim at least one of the two chambers. The circumstances would seem to call for a change in strategic direction, or at least an adjustment to the messaging and tactics that Trump has been employing for the past months.
But while Trump is certainly not a predictable political figure, he has not demonstrated any inclination at this point to alter his approach. Because there will not be an election for president until 2028, voter turnout is likely to be much lower this November. When fewer voters are watching the campaign and therefore less likely to cast a ballot, the participation of the two parties’ most ideologically committed members takes on a disproportionate amount of importance. That means that while centrist voters usually determine the outcome of a presidential election, the most liberal Democrats and the most conservative Republicans will control the outcome this fall.
Trump knows this. So he is targeting his message to the Make America Great Again true believers who elected him in 2016 and 2024 and is highlighting the issues most important to them. But this strategy also represents a tremendous risk, as polls show that worries about inflation and affordability (and concerns about Iran) are currently discouraging Republican turnout.
These voters have come through for the president before, and he may very well motivate them to help him keep the Republican majority that he needs. But if it seems like Trump—and therefore our country—is reliving the same day over and over again, it’s because, at least for the foreseeable future, that is precisely what he believes will bring him and his party to victory.
The movie ended when Bill Murray’ character realized that there were limits to his power and that newfound humility finally allowed him to break out of the endless loop in which he had been trapped. It’s not easy to envision Trump coming to a similar epiphany anytime soon.
.png.webp)
