The Blue-State Exodus Could Have Profound Effects on GOP Power

Americans' interstate-migration trends since the pandemic might foretell a new demographic destiny.

Conservatives have noticed approvingly that deep-blue states such as California and New York have been losing residents to deep-red ones such as Texas and Florida since the pandemic. Many note that this points to the comparative advantage low-tax places have in attracting businesses and families. Few have noted, however, the possibly profound positive effect this migration — if it continues — will have on the Republican Party’s chances to win power.

The Brennan Center for Justice, a liberal nonprofit, recently projected that states that Joe Biden easily carried in 2020 would lose a net twelve House seats to states carried by Donald Trump. Another two seats would move from two Rust Belt swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, to the Sunbelt swing states of Arizona and Georgia. As a result, if this projection proves correct, a Republican candidate in 2032 would be able to capture the White House simply by winning the Trump states plus Arizona and Georgia.

That alone would be potentially groundbreaking. As is often noted, Republicans have won a majority of the popular vote only once since 1988. Normally, that would make it impossible to win the presidency, but the GOP coalition has been historically imbalanced. The GOP’s reliance on whites without four-year degrees means it can win states that have large numbers of such voters while losing elsewhere. Therefore, since 2012, its losing margins in blue states have increased as well as its ability to contest other states. The GOP coalition does not need a popular-vote majority to win the Electoral College.