Will stars align for Haley in bizarre GOP contest?

The political world spends a lot of time discussing former President Donald Trump's lead over the Republican field in national polls — currently at 44.5%, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. But of course the race will unfold as a series of state contests, beginning in Iowa on Jan. 15, New Hampshire on Jan. 23, Nevada on Feb. 8, and South Carolina on Feb. 24. By then, Republicans should have a pretty good idea who their 2024 presidential nominee will be.

Of course, Trump is leading in the early-voting state polls, too — a 29.7-point lead in Iowa, a 27-point lead in New Hampshire, and a 30.5-point lead in South Carolina. (The Nevada contest is a weird primary/caucus mix that will not be very influential.) Something big will have to happen for Trump's huge leads to disappear. But there is a secondary race, too, the race to be the backup nominee should Trump somehow fail. Right now, the secondary race appears to be coming down to Ron DeSantis vs. Nikki Haley, and Haley is emerging with a strong hand, at least for the moment.