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From a purely arithmetic standpoint, all Senate elections are created equal. Each of the dozen or so most competitive contests will have an identical impact on which party will control Congress’ upper house in January. But two of these campaigns, in Michigan and in Texas, could have an even greater impact on the national political landscape in the years ahead.
The parties themselves seem to understand the greater stakes involved in these two states. Along with Ohio, which appears ready to reemerge as a national bellwether after a decade as a reliable bastion of Trumpian Republicanism, the Texas and Michigan Senate campaigns will account for roughly two-thirds of all the money the two parties have spent in the entire country on the fight for Senate control. But the Lone Star State, down on the US-Mexico border and the Great Lakes State, a continent away wedged up against Canada, are also poised to shape the two parties’ nominees for president in 2028.
Texas Republicans and Michigan Democrats made decisions last spring that could turn out to be brave or foolhardy. Both parties would have been virtually assured of holding their respective Senate seats by nominating safe centrist candidates. But both allowed their political ids to instead choose more controversial and more ideologically extreme candidates. On the last day before voting concludes, both Abdul El-Sayed and Ken Paxton are embroiled in excruciatingly close contests for two seats that could determine control of the Senate. But looking beyond this year’s elections, the outcomes will almost certainly energize or deflate the primary voters who will decide who their parties run for president two years from now.
If either El-Sayed or Paxton is elected Tuesday night, it will validate the DSA and MAGA beliefs that the path to victory is better accomplished by an uncompromising ideological true believer who reflects the passions of their part’s base. If they lose, more traditional establishment voices will be emboldened to push for a nominee who is better positioned to appeal to swing voters. This is the classic tension that has always existed within the two-party system. Now, both of these men could end up charting a course for their party’s presidential prospects based on the messages that their fates send to primary voters.
The Michigan Senate race took a turn toward the extraordinary over the weekend. A dustup between El-Sayed and primary opponent Haley Stevens over a harshly anti-Israel video posted by El-Sayed backers exploded into an all-out party fracture, resulting in Stevens’ endorsement of Republican candidate Mike Rogers. It’s impossible to predict how Stevens’ Jewish and Black supporters will react to such a jarring turn of events. But this is not an ideal scenario for a party that needs to be unifying its voters barely 48 hours before the polls close on Tuesday night.
Paxton’s primary foe, incumbent John Cornryn, has neither endorsed Paxton nor campaigned with him. While his estrangement has not been nearly as sudden or as dramatic as Stevens’, it runs just as deep. Texas has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1988, but with James Talarico maintaining a small but consistent lead in the polls, every Republican vote counts. But as the frustrated president has noted, not every Texas Republican voter is where he wants them to be.
The 2028 primaries will be decided by dozens, if not hundreds, of other factors. But Democratic progressives will be tremendously energized by an El-Sayed victory and perhaps also looking for vengeance against the party center after what they see as a potentially fatal betrayal by Stevens. And if El-Sayed falls short, Democratic traditionalists will be just as insistent that the party must move to the middle. Polling shows that larger-than-expected Democratic successes across the country on Tuesday will convince party members that a leftward path is the better one, and El-Sayed has become the most visible symbol of this alternative. More muddled results will lead to equally opaque conclusions. Again, El-Sayed’s fate will have a disproportionate impact.
The Republican equation is complicated by Trump’s own role in selecting his successor, and he will put a very sizable thumb on the scale for J.D. Vance or another equally devoted loyalist. A Paxton win makes that outcome much more likely, but if Talarico does turn deep-red Texas into a purple state, larger numbers of disaffected Republicans might decide it’s time to move away from Trump toward a more traditional Bush-Romney type standard-bearer.
2028 only seems like its two years away. The next campaign actually begins Wednesday morning.
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