So, Can We Trust the Polls?

Recent changes add up to a case for cautious optimism on better accuracy, but that’s far from a guarantee.

The polls underestimated Donald J. Trump in 2016.

They underestimated him again in 2020.

So can we trust the polls this time?

I’m asked this question a lot, and if I only get one quick reply, my answer is simple: no.

No, you can’t trust the polls — at least if you mean by “trust” what I think you do. You can’t safely assume that the candidate leading in the polls is going to win. They’re not exact measurements, and elections nowadays are so close that even an excellent poll could leave someone feeling misled on election night.