NYT's Latest Polling Observation Should Make Dems Very Nervous

We’ve been told it’s going to be a close race. If the polling is off as it was in 2020 regarding gauging the Trump vote, the former president could be in for a blowout win against Kamala Harris. Yet, the same polling error could lead to a solid win for the Democrats. We don’t know anything, except the latest Iowa poll is crap. At this point, it’s all about getting to the polls. Yet, it’s noteworthy that The New York Times decided to leave this piece of agita in their analysis. It’s not good for Democrats, and a polling anomaly that everyone should follow when the polls close on Tuesday night: there’s a response bias in the surveys that favors Democrats (via NYT): 

Four years ago, the polls were thought to underestimate Mr. Trump because of nonresponse bias — in which his supporters were less likely to take surveys than demographically similar Biden supporters. 

It’s hard to measure nonresponse bias — after all, we couldn’t reach these demographically similar voters — but one measure I track from time to time is the proportion of Democrats or Republicans who respond to a survey, after considering other factors.