Trump’s Tricky Math

His campaign’s snapshot of swing-state polling points to warning signs beneath the surface.

The Trump campaign released a polling memo on October 13 contending that he was ahead by two points in the seven swing states. A close read of what the memo said — and didn’t say — nonetheless shows that the race still hangs by a thread.

The memo was authored by campaign chiefs Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita and polling maestro Tony Fabrizio. It argues that their polling shows that Harris’s favorability is down slightly since Labor Day in the battleground states and that Trump now leads 49–47 in those. So far, so good for Trump.

It then compares Trump’s internal numbers among blacks and Hispanics in those states with the numbers in those states from the 2020 exit polls. It states that Trump’s margin of defeat among blacks has shrunk by 20 points (81 to 61). It also says he leads among Latinos by seven points whereas he had lost them by 25 points against Joe Biden.