Trump overtakes Harris for first time in Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast

Former President Trump on Sunday overtook Vice President Harris for the first time in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast this cycle.

The model predicts Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning the presidency while Harris has a 42 percent chance, as of Sunday.

Since late August, the election forecast put Harris’s chances of winning at approximately 54 to 56 percent, with Trump’s chances at approximately 44 to 46 percent. In early October, however, those dynamics began to shift, and the election forecast predicted both candidates’ chances to be closer to 50 percent.

On Oct. 17, the model predicted the two candidates were equally likely to win next month, and Trump took the advantage on Oct. 20.

The shift in election forecast coincides with the Republican candidate’s improved polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, two battleground states that previously leaned slightly toward Harris. Trump already had a slim advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.