Has Harris pulled ahead of Trump? The state of the 2024 polls, explained.

Now that the dust has settled after the first and perhaps only presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the state of the polling looks clear: Harris has a slight edge in a race that remains extremely close.

Harris leads national polls, on average, by 2 or 3 percentage points. More importantly, she leads in the key Electoral College states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by 1 to 2 points in recent polling averages. And if she wins all three, that would be just enough to give her the presidency (so long as she holds onto the other blue states, and Nebraska’s Second District).

But it’s important to remember that a 1 or 2 point lead in polling averages is not a safe or reliable lead. A polling error underestimating Trump in these states — of the sort that occurred in 2016 or 2020 — could send Harris to defeat.