Will Harris’s Lead Last? A Few Questions That Will Shape the Answer.

Kamala Harris has wrapped up an extraordinary month.

In that short time, she’s completely transformed the 2024 presidential election. She leads in most national and battleground state polls, and the real-world signs of the enthusiasm for her candidacy are everywhere, from filled-up stadiums to record-setting campaign contributions.

All this was hard to imagine before President Biden dropped out, when a majority of Americans had an unfavorable view of her. Her previous run for president did not go well. If anything, her record in national politics saddled her with considerable baggage, including a high-profile role on immigration policy in the Biden administration and a series of unpopular policy pronouncements in her last presidential campaign.