Kamala Harris is the underdog

As Democrats unite around Vice President Kamala Harris as their likely new nominee, their public mood is absolutely jubilant. Now, they hope, the party has a nominee who can take the fight to Trump — and win.

These hopes are not yet supported by polling data, which currently shows Harris on track to lose.

Harris’s approval rating is not good (38 percent approval, 50 percent disapproval in FiveThirtyEight’s average). She trails Trump by about 2 points nationally, on average, and the few public polls pitting her against Trump in swing states nearly all show her behind, sometimes behind by a lot.

Now, maybe those polls aren’t worth much since voters haven’t truly gotten to know Harris. Maybe she’ll wage a smart, vigorous campaign and win them over. Maybe the excitement her selection brings to the ticket will supercharge enthusiasm.Drew Hallowell/Getty Images