Trump, GOP are early favorites for White House, Congress

Former President Trump and the GOP are the favorites to win the races for the White House and for both chambers of Congress a little more than five months before Election Day, according to a forecast model released Wednesday by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.

The model gives Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the presidency, and shows him with slight leads in most of the key swing states in the presidential race.

Republicans are a more comfortable favorite in the House and Senate, the model says. The GOP holds a 79 percent chance of winning the Senate majority and a 64 percent chance of holding its House majority.

The model is based on the framework that Decision Desk HQ used for past elections in 2020 and 2022 but with some changes.