2023 Was a Wash. 2024 Could Be Historic

Time to review my 2023 predictions—20 correct and 12 wrong for a 62.5% success rate, down from 74.2% last year. I blame four bad Oscar and Grammy picks.

Here’s what I got right. Ukraine gained on the battlefield but isn’t back to its prewar borders. The West provided critical aid but with growing war weariness. Vladimir Putin threw more into the fight, including violent convicts, but achieved no breakthrough. China suffered a Covid explosion (and stopped reporting cases and deaths). Xi Jinping increased pressure on Taiwan but didn’t invade.

President Biden said he’s running for re-election. Five candidates are in the hunt for the GOP presidential nomination. Mr. Biden finishes 2023 below 45% approval: 40.6% in the RealClearPolitics average to be precise. The Supreme Court ended racial preference in college admissions. The S&P 500 rose this year—up roughly 25% as of Wednesday.