Trump Is More Likely to Win in 2024 Than Steal the Election. Are We Ready?

It’s now widely accepted that former President Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. With Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sliding back in the latest polls, Trump has little competition remaining among a primary electorate that continues to be infatuated with him.

But prevailing wisdom also suggests that Trump doesn’t stand a chance against President Joe Biden in the general election—with some Democrats eager for the opportunity to face him again. Many political analysts instead are fixated on the possibility that Trump will “steal” the election rather than win it outright.

This is a mistake. New data confirms that Republicans are increasing their turnout advantage. If Donald Trump is their nominee, he will be far more competitive than many think. After all, his flaws and indictments have done little to push Republicans away.