Headline Roundup • November 3rd, 2022
One Week Before Election Day, Pollsters Say Race for Senate is Neck and Neck
2022 Elections,US Senate,Public Opinion,2022 Georgia Senate Election,2022 Nevada Senate Election,2022 Arizona Senate Election,2022 Pennsylvania Senate Election,2022 Florida Senate Election,2022 Ohio Senate Election
Summary from the AllSides News Team
Multiple 2022 midterm election pollsters across the political spectrum suggest that the race for control of the Senate is in or near a dead heat, with Republicans appearing to hold a slight advantage just one week before Election Day.
What the Polls Say: Our interactive AllSides 2022 forecasting model tool estimates that Republicans have a 57% chance of winning the Senate. FiveThirtyEight's (Center bias) polling model predicts that Republicans will win 51 Senate seats to Democrats' 49, as does that of The Economist (Lean Left bias). The prediction from Fox News (Right bias) is for Republicans to win 49 seats to Democrats' 47, with four races currently marked as toss-ups. RealClearPolitics (Center bias) estimates that Republicans will win 48 seats to Democrats' 45, with seven races marked as toss-ups.
For Context: Republicans have been slowly gaining momentum in Senate races for the last few months, according to many of the same polls. Millions of ballots have already been cast nationwide through early voting.
How the Media Covered It: Sources across the spectrum project the Senate competition to be very close, and many agree that there's no clear favorite. Sources across the spectrum highlighted reports of the Libertarian candidate in Arizona's Senate race dropping out Tuesday and endorsing challenger Blake Masters (R) against incumbent Mark Kelly (D).
Featured Coverage of this Story
Rebecca Noble for The New York Times
Control of the Senate rests on a knife’s edge, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College, with Republican challengers in Nevada and Georgia neck-and-neck with Democratic incumbents, and the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania clinging to what appears to be a tenuous advantage.
The bright spot for Democrats in the four key states polled was in Arizona, where Senator Mark Kelly is holding a small but steady lead over his Republican challenger, Blake Masters.
The results indicate a deeply volatile and unpredictable Senate contest: More people across...
The battle for the Senate is anyone’s ballgame with only a week to go until voters head to the polls.
Republicans, needing to net only one seat, are knocking on the door as the national environment moves increasingly in their direction and some surveys show them in the lead in both Georgia and Nevada. According to FiveThirtyEight’s latest projections, the fight for the majority is a “dead heat,” turning the final days into an all-out sprint to get voters out to the polls.
Here are five races that will determine...
A projection from election handicapper FiveThirtyEight shows a dead heat in the race for control of the Senate, with each party given a 50% chance of winning a majority in the upper chamber next year.
The projection is derived using a simulation in which the midterm elections are run 40,000 times and 100 random samples are drawn from these results. The latest iteration was released Tuesday, with 50 times showing Republicans picking up a crucial 51st seat and 50 times showing Democrats maintaining at least 50 seats and staying in the majority with Vice President Kamala Harris as the...
