Trump Expected to Win Big at Iowa Caucus, but Brutal Winter Weather Could Affect Turnout

The first Republican primary event takes place in Iowa on Monday, where voters will caucus amid record-low temperatures.

The Details: Gale-force winds, snow, and wind chills as low as 45 below zero are expected to impact turnout. Former President Trump is anticipated to win handily, but the margin of his victory could provide insight for the rest of the race. While Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy are also on the ballot, many eyes are on former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who has recently climbed in the polls.

For Context: At a caucus, voters participate in an open format of election that includes discussion and voting publicly by separating into groups. This is different from primary elections, where voting happens by secret ballot. Iowa is one of seven states that holds a GOP caucus.

Key Quotes: David Kochel, a longtime Iowa political strategist, predicted a voter turnout of about 150,000, but cited the weather as a big factor: “Iowans can go out when it’s 15, 20 degrees, no problem… 10 below, 20 below – that can get dangerous for people. I mean, cars don’t start, elderly people, frostbite.” Bob Beatty, a political science professor from Kansas, said, “He’s not shaking hands, and he’s not taking questions. Trump is campaigning as an incumbent, and it’s half working. And if you get half, that’s it.”

How The Media Covered It: Sources across the spectrum cited the weather as a major factor and noted the margin of Trump’s victory as a key metric to watch.