June jobs report expected to show a steadily cooling labor market

A cooldown but not a crash: That’s roughly the picture economists expect the latest government data to paint — again — of the American labor market.

The June jobs report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is expected to show employers added about 200,000 nonfarm jobs. That would be fewer than the 272,000 roles that were added the month before in a surprisingly strong report that defied long-running forecasts of a sharper pullback in hiring. Instead, the U.S. labor market this year has remained robust even as it gradually tightens.

"Right now we're seeing a job market that is experiencing what I like to call a modulated cooldown," Nela Richardson, chief economist of payroll processor ADP, told reporters this week. "It's striking the right note at the right time."