A Cynical and Political Looming Prosecution

Former President Trump announced over the weekend that he expected to be arrested this coming Tuesday, calling on his supporters to protest the development and "take our nation back." His office later clarified that Trump didn't have any specific knowledge about the timing of any imminent arrest, claiming that his Truth Social posts were simply "rightfully highlighting his innocence and the weaponization of our injustice system." An indictment is widely expected, however, and former prosecutors I've spoken to tell me the fact pattern playing out strongly suggests that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office is, indeed, moving in that direction. The editors of the Wall Street Journal made some salient points on this front last week:

Falsifying business records is typically a misdemeanor in New York. To become a felony, prosecutors would have to prove the books were cooked with “an intent to commit another crime or to aid or conceal the commission thereof.” In Mr. Trump’s case, what is this second crime? The suggestion in the press is Mr. Bragg might say it’s a campaign-finance violation...An elected Democratic prosecutor is going to indict a Republican former President and 2024 contender, alleging a felony that could put him in prison, and it would boil down to a campaign-finance violation? That would be some precedent. To the public, it would sound as if Mr. Bragg is scrambling to come up with a legal theory to fit a target he had already decided he wanted to charge...And did Mr. Trump have “intent” to breach campaign-finance law? Even the New York Times, which threw fairness out the window during the Trump years, reports that, “The case against the former president hinges on an untested and therefore risky legal theory involving a complex interplay of laws, all amounting to a low-level felony.”