Midterm Predictions: The ‘Red Tsunami’ Comes into View Once More

I guess I’ve put off my election predictions for as long as I can. I usually prefer to hold off until right before Election Day, because you never know when some October surprise — or more accurately, a November surprise — will come along and change the dynamic, or give those last few undecided voters a reason to break a certain way.

But I think one of the big stories of the 2022 midterms is how much the dynamics didn’t change. This looked like a big GOP wave year back in the spring; it looked like a more modest GOP wave year back in midsummer; and it’s steadily looked more and more like a big GOP wave year as autumn progressed. I also think a lot of the “Democrats will keep the House and gain seats in the Senate” talk since summer amounted to Democratic and media wish-casting, seeing what they wanted to see instead of what was there.

Throughout the summer and fall, I thought Republicans were going to win 20-25 House seats and finish with at least 51 Senate seats — a “pretty good” wave year. (At least, I think that’s the answer I remember giving on The Editors podcast.) Now that we’re at the election’s eve, I think we’re on the higher end of a red-wave year, and approaching “red tsunami” territory.