Are Trump Voters Refusing to Take Polls? And Other Polling Risks.

If my inbox is any indication, we've reached the point when everyone just wants to know whether the polls will be right.

Fair enough, so in this newsletter, I'll respond to a few of your questions about the specific risks facing pollsters today.

But first I wanted to report one rare opportunity to put our New York Times/Siena University polls to an early test: Alaska's unusual top-four Senate primary, held in August. It's a plausible test because the primary ballot is a lot like a general election: Everyone was eligible to vote, and candidates from all parties appeared on the same ballot, with the top four vote-getters advancing to the general election.