Forecasting the world in 2022

The world on the brink of 2022 seems an especially unpredictable, and unsettling, place. For the first time, two FT forecasts this year ask if Russia and China will invade neighbours (we say no, but that may be wishful thinking). Less optimistically, our forecasters warn a more infectious coronavirus variant than Omicron could yet emerge, inflation will not return to US targets, tighter monetary policy will hit equities, and the next global climate conference will still not achieve enough in limiting warming. A bit playfully, perhaps, John Thornhill forecasts shares of Elon Musk’s Tesla will buck the trend and rise nonetheless.

For 2021, 17 of the FT’s 20 forecasts proved correct. We were wrong about the US rejoining the Iran nuclear deal, and too pessimistic on Covid vaccinations (about half the total world population has received two doses, suggesting more than half of adults have). Progress on diversity in US boardrooms also beat our benchmark.

Eight FT readers scored 17, too, needing the tiebreaker to split them. Congratulations go to the overall winner, Atul Arya of Newton, MA. Readers are invited once again to try to beat the FT by providing their own answers to the 20 questions plus tiebreaker below, giving their real name and email. We wish everyone a happy and safe new year.