Why Democrats are in a lot of trouble in Virginia

Virginia will have the eyes of the political world on it Tuesday night. Most of the attention will be on the marquee gubernatorial election between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin. Less watched, but important for its national implications, are the elections for the 100 seats in the House of Delegates.

If the polls are to be believed, Republicans are going to do very well in Virginia given the political baseline in the state. Traditionally, this would foretell a strong Republican performance in next year's midterms. In fact, given Virginia is more blue than the nation as a whole on the presidential level, a tie in this year's gubernatorial election would essentially be in line with Republicans winning the national House vote by 5 points next year.

Youngkin has been coming on strong in the polls. He trailed McAuliffe, a former governor, by about 5 points two months ago. The Republican closed the gap to 3 points a month ago. Today, Youngkin has pulled 1 point ahead of McAuliffe in an average of polls.