Why Trump Probably Won’t Be Charged

For those expecting or hoping to see Donald Trump wind up in prison, a great deal depends on whether this week’s charges are the opening salvo from the Manhattan district attorney’s office, the beginning of the end of the investigation, or something in between. Based on what we know right now, it is best to think of the future as a range of these possibilities.

On Thursday, Cyrus Vance’s years-long investigation into the Trump Organization produced an indictment charging Allen Weisselberg, the chief financial officer, with a variety of crimes for not reporting income he received from the company. Weisselberg allegedly avoided paying income taxes and received tax refunds to which he was not entitled as a result of an alleged scheme that netted him approximately $1 million. That’s not unusual, but the indictment also charges the Trump Organization itself and a subsidiary that processes payroll for the company. As others have noted, corporations aren’t typically charged simply for failing to pay taxes on employee benefits. These sorts of corporate cases can be handled through tax authorities or civil actions, with a penalty that might include the payment of back taxes along with a fine. In fact, if this were any other company, it is likely that this conduct would not have resulted in criminal charges against the corporation itself.