Why Trump Probably Won’t Be Charged

For those expecting or hoping to see Donald Trump wind up in prison, a great deal depends on whether this week’s charges are the opening salvo from the Manhattan district attorney’s office, the beginning of the end of the investigation, or something in between. Based on what we know right now, it is best to think of the future as a range of these possibilities.

On Thursday, Cyrus Vance’s years-long investigation into the Trump Organization produced an indictment charging Allen Weisselberg, the chief financial officer, with a variety of crimes for not reporting...