Monday is the first Tax Day under the new rules of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, but Americans have been adapting to the law since it passed in late 2017.
Some of its effects are already visible, and some of them will take months, or even years, to understand. After all, economists are still publishing studies about the effect of the last comprehensive tax overhaul back in 1986, signed by Ronald Reagan.
Here's what we can — and can't — say about how President Donald Trump's tax cuts have impacted the economy so far.
1. Corporate taxes fell off a cliff, fueling deeper deficits
2. A short-term economic boost is fading
3. Rich people gained more than poor people
4. Most other impacts: Either too soon to tell or too hard to see
Most of the true impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is still yet to be felt. But one implication is already operating in the background. Tax cuts can help ease the impact of economic downturns, and now, there's a lot less room to use them.
"The thing that's related that I'm more concerned about is, we will eventually face another recession," says Oh, of UCLA. "And what we've done through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is use a bunch of the tools that we need to deal with the next recession, at a time when we don't have a recession."
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