UN Report Warns World Likely to Exceed 1.5°C Warming Threshold Within a Decade

A new United Nations report warns that the world is failing to meet its main climate targets, and is likely to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold of warming within the next decade.

The Details: The UN’s Emissions Gap Report 2025 highlights a widening gap between national climate pledges and actual policies, projecting that current measures would result in roughly 2.8°C of warming by the end of the century. Even if all current commitments are fully implemented, global temperatures would still rise by 2.3-2.5°C, well above the 1.5-2°C targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said that “this will be difficult to reverse – requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize overshoot.” While the UNEP reported some progress–the world was previously on track for a 4°C rise–CO2 emissions continued to increase 2.3% in 2024 to 57.7 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent.

For Context: Among the highest CO2 emitters are China, the US, India and the European Union. China pledged to cut emissions by 7-10% from their peak by 2035. Under the Trump administration, the US has retracted several pollution controls and climate policies, which could add up to 0.1 degree Celsius to future global warming projections. The European Union is reportedly attempting to align at least 15 of its 27 nations’ targets ahead of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil. In 2022, the UN climate change panel issued a report, arguing that unchecked global warming presents "a threat to human well-being and planetary health."

How the Media Covered It: The Washington Times (Lean Right bias) and New York Times (Lean Left) both highlighted the slight progress reported, but that overall efforts fell short. Breitbart (Right) noted 300 mayors pledged coordinated climate action ahead of the Brazil summit. Reuters (Center) emphasized the world's failure to meet the main climate change target, and quoted a UNEP lead report author who said, “we can no longer totally avoid it.” CNN (Lean Left) and Bloomberg (Lean Left) both highlighted the role of individual countries, noting the UNEP’s argument that “countries’ slow action” have led to the increase, and that “none of the roughly 60 countries” heading to the summit “have submitted an updated climate pledge.”

Revised by the AllSides staff (of humans) after a first draft by our custom AI. Learn more. Support our mission.